If you want an extension of summer this week is obviously for you. Let’s look to see if there is any fall-like weather anywhere in sight.
The sun is definitely losing heating power with each day as we go through September. The sun travels across our sky at a less directly overhead position each day. We are getting a glancing blow from the sun Instead of more direct sunshine from a sun high in the sky.
The above situation is why our next 10 days or more are even more abnormal. While the long-term average high temperature is going down a degree every two days now, our actual afternoon temperatures are going to stay in the 82 degrees to 88 degrees range for this week and probably all of next week.
Before we look at the details I would say generally it will feel like hot summer this week into next week, and then cool off around 10 degrees as we close out September and start October. A 10 degree cooldown still takes us well into the 70s during the afternoon.
Look at the best way I have to show you an overall weather pattern- the temperature deviation at 5,000 feet up. If it’s hotter than normal at 5,000 feet it will be hotter than normal here at the ground.
Look at all of the red in the temperature forecast.
Temperature anomaly forecast from Monday, September 16 to Wednesday, September 25. Temperature deviation forecast is in degrees Celsius, so double the anomaly for a general conversion to degrees F.NOAA
This means we are going to stay very warm to hot through midweek next week.
Now let’s look out farther in the time frame that we can still trust our dynamical weather models. Dynamic models use equations to forecast weather elements like temperature, precipitation and wind. We can generally trust a few models for the big-picture weather pattern out to 10 days. In a more general sense we can believe some models two weeks out.
The surface temperature anomaly forecast out to October 1 shows a warm pattern continues until then.
Surface temperature anomaly forecast from Monday September 16 to Tuesday, October 1NOAA
Of course this will be a great example of the same sun can’t heat us as hot as today. So an abnormal hot spell on October 1 will warm us into the 70s and maybe a day in the low-80s.
Here’s the three to four week forecast out to October 11. It’s red and warm again.
Temperature forecast for September 28 to October 11. (Source- NOAA)NOAA
The only thing I can say here is we don’t see an end to the warmer-than-normal pattern in the next month. Above normal temperatures may not end this fall, but it will eventually get cooler in October. It has to with the weakening heating power of the sun.
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